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Friday, April 21 • 10:00 - 11:30
How to quantify everyone's (lack of) knowledge to help make better decisions FULL

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The workshop aims to demonstrate how background knowledge from different experts, both stakeholders and scientists, can be quantified and used to complement other data sources from more formal scientific studies. In the last 20 years, as Bayesian methods have flourished, statisticians and psychologists have developed formal elicitation processes that make it possible to describe both the knowledge people have and their uncertainty about it. In statistical analyses this can then be set alongside other data sources. Where views differ the consequences or not of these different views can be easily explored. Elicitation processes are generally positive, exciting exercises that can help everyone clarify their (lack of) understanding about a problem.
This will be an interactive workshop for a very small number of people. Participants will be introduced to the general motivation and the basic concepts of elicitation and probability. Most of the workshop will be taken up by the participants carrying out a facilitated joint elicitation process to experience how such a process works. 

After the elicitation process is finished the participants will then see how these results can be used in an analysis and will be able to reflect, in discussion, on the benefits and difficulties of this approach. The aim is that participants will leave with an appreciation of how knowledge from different people can be quantified and used in analyses and the pitfalls and advantages of doing so.  

For more details see here: http://bit.ly/2nGIBiP

[I'll need a whiteboard, and ability to attach a laptop to a projector]

avatar for Fiona Underwood

Fiona Underwood

Independent statistical researcher/consultant
As an applied statistician I have developed robust data-driven methods to provide evidence to inform decision making about the illegal wildlife trade. This includes contributing to the development of analytical methods for both global monitoring systems for elephants and leading... Read More →

Friday April 21, 2017 10:00 - 11:30 BST
Seminar Room

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